US EPA’s AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT) is a free, easy-to-use tool that projects the hourly changes in generation and the associated changes in air emissions at individual electric generating units resulting from changes to the electric grid, e.g., from the introduction of new energy efficiency (EE) or renewable energy (RE) resources in a specific geographic region in the contiguous 48 states of the United States. AVERT uses public, hourly generation and emissions data collected by EPA’s Clean Air Market’s Division on fossil generators, and through its statistical dispatch simulator, estimates how generating units react to shifts in load, and, thus, how they might respond to new EE/RE programs. The model reports changes in NOX, SO2, CO2, PM2.5, and, as of October 2021, also VOC and NH3 emissions at the county, state, and regional level. The upcoming release of AVERT 4.0 is the fourth major update to the tool and includes the ability to model grid and emissions impacts of electric vehicles (EV), specifically light duty vehicles, transit buses, and school buses. This presentation describes the methodology of the electric vehicle component, and how the model leverages existing data sets to produce power and transportation sector emissions impacts associated with the electrification of vehicles. The presentation will demonstrate how the model can support electric vehicle policy, program, and project development through quickly analyzing various scenarios with a wide selection of electric and internal combustion engine vehicle variables. Notably, the presentation will discuss important considerations for analysts such as vehicle replacement vintage and offer guidance on how analysts should interpret AVERT results for both near- and long-term time horizons. Finally, the presentation will review AVERT’s compatibility with EPA’s CO-Benefit Risk Assessment (COBRA) Health Impacts Screening and Mapping Tool which, in sum, will allow users of the two tools to quickly and easily evaluate and quantify the health impacts of vehicle electrification. The primary audiences for this presentation are state, local, and tribal climate, energy, air, or transportation planners, supporting consultants, non-governmental organizations interested in similar topics, as well as public health agencies involved in assessing air quality impacts from transportation or the power grid.
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