Whitby, a small city in the greater Toronto area, is expecting population growth of 140 percent in the next 50 years. Concurrently, Whitby faces a wide range of climate hazards, from increased flooding to extreme heat. Working with Sustainability Solutions Group, the town used climate-change models to develop multiple scenarios. One represented planned growth, the other incorporated deliberate actions to reduce the risk of impacts from climate change. These scenarios were spatially modeled, taking into account the location of vulnerable populations. Comparing them revealed an extremely high cost of doing nothing, and a positive return on investment for adaptation actions.
The recommended course of action is to shift development out of the 100-year floodplain projected for 2070, while retrofitting existing buildings. This approach was controversial with local builders and developers, and the town faced many tough questions about affordability and climate projections. However, the quantitative assessment and equity focus led to the town passing the plan unanimously and becoming a regional leader for the new era of climate adaptation. Presenters share how Whitby modeled climate change at a local, spatial level and analyzed the financial impacts of doing nothing compared to taking action.
NPC Peer Reviewers assigned this presentation a learning level of Intermediate. For more on learning-level descriptions, visit our General Information Page.
Learning Objectives:
Use a climate adaptation lens to shape your community’s future development.
Apply climate-scenario modeling.
Articulate data-informed responses to common adaptation concerns such as affordability and return on investment.
