Predicting an Overdose: Regression Analysis Models

In 2020, the West Virginia Office of Drug Control Policy (ODCP) discovered and identified eight counties that carried 60% of the overdose burden in the state and labeled them Action Counties. In 2021, the ODCP regional coordinators were onboarded to specifically target these Action Counties within their region of focus. In 2022, as a result of the ODCP regional coordinator work, the regression analysis model for preventing an overdose was developed in the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia by two ODCP regional coordinators and is now being replicated in all eight action counties. The goal of this project is to change response to overdoses from reactive to proactive guided by the question, “Where will the next overdose occur?” To accomplish this goal, regional coordinators analyzed drug trafficking trends into Berkeley County, West Virginia, from three counties in Maryland. A geospatial map was created of all overdoses in Berkeley County from November 2020 to November 2021 and overlaid with the same data from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health for Baltimore, Frederick, and Washington Counties in Maryland and a statistical relationship was identified. Using this relationship, the predictive model was developed that gives a timeframe between overdose spikes in Maryland and Berkeley County, West Virginia. Presenters will address how this type of novel model paves the way for broader adaptations nationwide.