Developing a National Risk Index for Unintentional Child Injury

Unintentional injury is the leading cause of death among children ages 1–19 and disparities exist by race/ethnicity, geography, and socioeconomic status. To address inequities and target limited resources, Safe Kids Worldwide has developed a risk index predicting fatal unintentional injuries among children using census data
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Methods: Social determinants of child injury identified in the literature were selected from the U.S. Census Bureau and used to predict the number and rate of fatal unintentional injuries among children 0-19 years for years 2010-2019. Regression analyses were conducted to identify models and weights that were applied to predictors at the county and zip code tabulation area levels to generate risk scores. Risk scores were divided into quintiles, mapped and the distribution of each indicator was determined to explore options for geographically targeting prevention initiatives.

Results: Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility, utility, and limitations of using available data to develop a tool to help identify high-risk counties and zipcode tabulation areas for targeted intervention. Indicators of deprivation were found to be highly associated with unintentional injury indicating they are important factors for the development of prevention strategies. We will present our final models, strengths, limitations, and how we are using them to inform our strategy to address high-risk and underserved populations.

Conclusion: Given the limited resources to address unintentional child injury and the inequities that currently exist, an index that uses social determinants to provide a level of guidance in identifying geographic areas at greater risk provides a data-driven way to target the distribution of resources and prevention activities.