52 - The effect of rainfall on the ability of mosquitoes to transmit a virus or parasite and disease occurrence

Abstract: We will discuss the impact of rainfall on the ability of mosquitoes to transmit vector borne diseases and demonstrate that global climate teleconnections can be used to anticipate and forecast, in the case of Rift Valley fever, epidemics and epizootics. In this context we will examine significant worldwide weather anomalies that have affected vector-borne disease outbreaks. Utilizing vegetation index data from NASA’s satellite based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia we demonstrate that shifts in precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with consequences for public health. Weather extremes have resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought. These extremes have created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, West Nile virus and malaria. The prognosis for vector-borne disease transmission in a changing climate will be discussed.