COS 24-3 - Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people

Background/Question/Methods

Despite substantial progress in understanding global biodiversity loss, major taxonomic and geographic knowledge gaps remain. Decisionmakers often rely on expert judgment to fill knowledge gaps, but are rarely able to engage with sufficiently large and diverse groups of experts. To improve understanding of the perspectives of biodiversity experts worldwide, we conducted a survey to: (1) identify points of global consensus; (2) help fill knowledge gaps for understudied taxa and regions; and (3) test for significant differences in estimates and perspectives among groups of experts. We identified biodiversity experts as corresponding authors of papers published in scientific journals over the last decade on the topic of biodiversity. We received 3,331 survey responses from biodiversity experts who live in 113 countries and who research biodiversity in nearly all (187) countries, including all major habitats in freshwater, terrestrial, and marine ecosystems. Focusing on the taxa and ecosystems they know best, these experts estimated past and future global biodiversity loss, ranked the direct and indirect drivers of global biodiversity loss, and estimated its impact on ecosystem functioning and nature’s contributions to people.

Results/Conclusions

We found some points of overwhelming global consensus, including that global biodiversity loss will likely decrease ecosystem functioning and nature's contributions to people (96% of experts agree) and that multiple drivers of biodiversity loss interact synergistically (94% of experts agree). Biodiversity experts estimate that about 30% (uncertainty range 16-50%) of species have been globally threatened or driven extinct since the year 1500. Importantly, we also found demographic and geographic differences in experts' perspectives and estimates. Experts from groups that are underrepresented in global biodiversity science, including women and experts from the Global South, recommend different priorities for conservation solutions, with less emphasis on acquiring protected areas, and provide higher estimates of biodiversity loss and its impacts, partly because they disproportionately study the most threatened taxa and habitats. Global biodiversity loss and its impacts may be greater than previously thought, given relatively high estimates provided for understudied taxa and by underrepresented experts. Experts estimate that greatly increasing conservation investments and efforts now could remove the threat of extinction for one in three species that may otherwise be threatened or extinct by 2100. Please see all coauthors at: https://z.umn.edu/BiodiversityExpertsESA2022