COS 68-1 - CANCELLED - Identifying potential gray wolf habitat and connectivity in the eastern USA

Background/Question/Methods

Following federal protection in 1974, gray wolves (Canis lupus) partially recolonized former range in the western Great Lakes region, USA, yet remain absent from most of their historical range in the eastern USA. Understanding potential for further recolonization requires quantifying remaining wolf habitat and habitat connectivity. We used recent snow tracking data from the western Great Lakes region to create an ensemble distribution model to estimate areas in the eastern USA with habitat large enough to support wolf populations. We then modeled cost-weighted distances between these areas and circuit connectivity to identify potential corridors.

Results/Conclusions

Our results suggest wolves selected against areas with greater human population densities and proportions of agricultural land. Wolves currently occupy about 4% of their historical range in the eastern USA, about 12% of the area estimated to remain wolf habitat. We estimate 35% of former range is currently suitable for wolves, of which about 18% is protected, mostly under state and federal jurisdictions. We identified 5 unoccupied areas where wolves could establish viable populations ranging from 18,110 to 725,488 km². Connectivity between these areas and current wolf range is limited primarily by extensive agriculture in the Midwest USA. Most core habitat areas and priority corridors cross state or country borders, suggesting further recolonization will require interjurisdictional cooperation.