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Organized Oral Session

Session: A comparative perspective on integrating ecological forecasting with decision-making

OOS 23-2 - Forecasting cumulative effects of anticipated resource development on wildlife and vegetation in the James Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario, Canada

Wednesday, August 17, 2022

8:15 AM – 8:30 AM EDT

Location: 520C

Presenting Author(s)

Josie Hughes

Research Scientist
National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Slides (PDF)

Co-author(s)

FS

Frances Stewart, PhD

Assistant Professor
Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada
JB

Jennifer L. Baltzer, PhD

Associate Professor
Wilfrid Laurier University
LV

Lisa Venier, PhD

Research Scientist
Natural Resources Canada
SA

Stephanie Avery-Gomm, PhD

Research Scientist
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Canada
RA

Raquel Alfaro-Sánchez, PhD

Postdoctoral Fellow
Wilfrid Laurier University
AC

Alex M. Chubaty, PhD

Modeller
FOR-CAST Research & Analytics, Canada
SC

Steven G. Cumming

Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University, Canada
SE

Sarah Endicott, MSc

Physical Scientist
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ontario, Canada
LF

Leonardo Frid, MSc

Systems Ecologist
Apex Resource Management Solutions
CJ

Cheryl A. Johnson, PhD

Research Scientist
Environment and climate Change Canada
SM

Samantha McFarlane, PhD

Wildlife Biologist
Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ontario, Canada
EM

Eliot McIntire

Natural Resources Canada
PW

Philip A. Wiebe, MSc

Biologist
Natural Resources Canada

Background/Question/Methods
The James Bay Lowlands in Northern Ontario, Canada, falls within one of the largest areas of intact wetlands on the planet, containing one of the largest soil carbon stores. The region is home to Indigenous peoples and wildlife, including the threatened boreal woodland caribou. It is presently inaccessible by road. There is an urgent need to assess the potential environmental impacts of proposed mining of ‘Ring of Fire' mineral deposits. Challenges for forecasting regional cumulative impacts of mining development and ongoing climate warming on vegetation and caribou include: lack of baseline information on the distribution and dynamics of vegetation, natural disturbance regimes, and the distribution, status, and behaviour of wildlife; the cost and logistical difficulty of data collection in remote areas; a lack of ethical space for engagement among scientists and Indigenous communities; and lack of quantitative models of peatland vegetation dynamics.

Results/Conclusions
We used available models of vegetation dynamics and caribou responses to explore a framework for integrating models into a decision support tool. We use this tool to highlight the needs and possibilities for impact assessment in the region, to identify opportunities for baseline data collection, to begin building partnerships, and to demonstrate the potential for open, modular decision support tools to better integrate ecological knowledge into decision making.