Migration phenology dynamics regulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

10:36 AM – 10:48 AM PT

Location: Vancouver Convention Centre, Meeting Room 114/115

Presenting Author(s)

Elise Larsen (she/they)

Assistant Research Professor
Georgetown University
Washington, District of Columbia

Co-Author(s)

NN

Naresh Neupane

Research Assistant Professor
Georgetown University
Washington, District of Columbia
LR

Leslie Ries

Georgetown University
Washington, District of Columbia
RG

Robert Guralnick

University of Florida Research Foundation Professor
Florida Museum of Natural History
Gainesville, Florida

Changing patterns in insect migrations have been associated with climate change. However, variability in the timing of insect migrations under global change remains poorly understood. Here, we present a framework for mechanistic modeling of migration timing using knowledge of atmospheric circulation, and other environmental conditions over the entire migratory range. Incorporating species-specific physiological requirements into a model of multi-generational dynamics, we successfully predict arrival timing to multiple breeding regions, by different generations, of the iconic eastern North American monarchs (Danaus plexippus L.). We find strong evidence that variation in wind strength and direction drives variability in spring, but not summer, arrival timing. These wind dynamics are themselves determined by yearly dynamics of Hadley circulation cells. We propose that projected changes in Hadley dynamics under different emission scenarios will be critical for predicting future shifts in tropical-temperate migratory patterns.