Spatio-temporal network modelling of Agrilus planipennis establishment in campgrounds and cities across Maritime Canada

The emerald ash borer (EAB) is an invasive buprestid beetle causing large-scale devastation to ash trees in North America. Their transportation by humans in wood products results in jump-dispersal events into new areas throughout eastern North America. Current modelling techniques have created accurate risk models of these jump-dispersal events of new EAB populations by measuring firewood movement by campers. However, important elements that may impact emerald ash borer introduction and establishment are not considered in many of these models. I use a gravity model that estimates the movement of EAB infested firewood to measure differences in the establishment threshold and the importance of firewood arrival time in the establishment of the EAB into new areas. We collected data on campground and city characteristics, camper travel trends, forest characteristics, and information on EAB biology and ecology to create the model and to simulate dispersal events. We found that the proportion and probability of locations with established populations of EAB decreases with increasing propagule pressure threshold for establishment. This work reveals data gaps to be addressed to improve the accuracy of models estimating the establishment potential of invasive species that exhibit jump-dispersal events.