Predicting the distribution of an invasive ant in the southeastern US with current and future climatic and anthropogenic disturbance data

Sunday, November 13, 2022

3:54 PM – 4:06 PM PT

Location: Vancouver Convention Centre, Meeting Room 203

Presenting Author(s)

Virginia Rose Seagal (she/her/hers)

Graduate Assistant
University of Florida
Eugene, Oregon

Co-Author(s)

Andrea Lucky

Associate Professor
University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida
RG

Robert Guralnick

University of Florida Research Foundation Professor
Florida Museum of Natural History
Gainesville, Florida

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbance are two drivers of global change that are of particular concern that influence the distributions of plants and animals. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a key tool for invasion biologists to predict potential distributions and future range shifts of invasive species under global change scenarios. Despite its widespread acceptance and use, ENM has primarily been climate-based. Here we present a case study modeling the potential distribution and future range shifts of an invasive ant, the little fire ant (Wasmannia auropunctata), in the southeastern United States using two ENM techniques. We asked the following questions: (1) How important is human disturbance in modeling W. auropunctata’s ecological niche and potential for future spread?; (2) what is the potential distribution of W. auropunctata in the southeastern US under current climatic and disturbance conditions?; and (3) how will this species’ potential range shift with future climate change and human population density by the years 2050 and 2070? We found that anthropogenic disturbance increases model performance when predicting the distribution of W. auropunctata (and likely other disturbance-adapted species), that the potential distribution of W. auropunctata extends far beyond its current known range and is likely to expand with the progression of climate change and increases in human population density. The results of this study improve our understanding of W. auropunctata’s potential to spread further into the southeastern US and demonstrate the importance of including both current and future anthropogenic disturbance variables in predictive modeling.