Winter moth, Operophtera brumata, population dynamics II: Synchrony of hatch with host tree bud burst drives population density change in the northeastern US

Sunday, November 13, 2022

4:54 PM – 5:06 PM PT

Location: Vancouver Convention Centre, Meeting Room 301

Presenting Author(s)

Joseph S. Elkinton

professor
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, Massachusetts

Co-Author(s)

JC

Jennifer L. Chandler

Research Fellow
University of Massachusetts
Amherst, Massachusetts
JB

John Buonaccorsi

University of Massachusetts
Shutebury, Massachusetts
GB

George Boettner

University of Massachusetts
Amherst, Massachusetts

We used our age-dependent exponential growth model of winter moth egg hatch coupled with a model of red oak, Quercus rubra, bud burst to determine the synchrony of winter moth hatch with bud burst over a 10-year period (2006-2016), for which we collected winter moth life table data at multiple sites. We focused on the years of outbreak densities of winter moth before the tachinid biological control agent Cyzenis albicans became widely established. We show that substantial asynchrony with bud burst was correlated with a decline in winter moth density, as measured by yearly estimates of pupae per m². Asynchrony with bud burst was especially pronounced when spring was early. These findings confirm earlier research in Europe and Canada that related year to year change in winter moth population density to the degree of synchrony of hatch with bud burst. Our results thus add to the population dynamics literature on this famous insect.