D3254: Grain storage in the era of climate change: Microclimate determines whether grain aeration suffices to protect agricultural commodities after harvest in Greece

A modeling simulation study was conducted to determine the feasibility of using aeration to manage Sitophilus oryzae (L.) in wheat stored throughout the country of Greece. Daily high and low temperature data from 2010–2019 were obtained for sixteen representative sites in Greece, and averaged to predict hours below temperature thresholds of 15℃, 18℃, and 21℃ from August–November. Based on climate, the sixteen sites were classified into three distinct aeration zones. Zones were associated with differences in latitude and elevation. Web-based modeling developed predictions for S. oryzae population growth in unaerated wheat, wheat aerated immediately after the start date of 15 July, and wheat aerated based on the accumulation of temperatures below the 15℃, 18℃, and 21℃ thresholds. The optimal aeration scenarios for inhibition of S. oryzae growth in wheat stored in the warmest Zone 1 were immediate aeration or aeration at 21℃, but additional fumigation inputs may be required in this zone. Immediate aeration or aeration at 18 and 21°C were the most optimal scenarios for wheat stored in Zone 2, an intermediate climatic zone. For the coolest Zone 3, any aeration scenario would be feasible. For all zones, predicted S. oryzae populations in unaerated wheat would increase exponentially in late autumn to catastrophic levels, causing extensive economic damage. Our results can be used to develop wheat management using aeration in Greece and may possibly lead to reduced reliance on phosphine for control of S. oryzae.