A pilot study to mimic a European index framework for mosquito-virus dyads endemic or expected to become endemic in Canada over the next 50 years

Mosquito borne diseases (MBD) in Canada are expected to increase over the next few decades due to multiple factors. We are conducting a pilot study to develop a scoring index assessing the potential risk to Canada over the next five decades from targeted MBD currently endemic in Canada, namely: Eastern Equine Encephalitis, Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, West Nile Virus, Cache Valley Virus and California Serogroup (including Jamestown Canyon, Snowshoe Hare, California Encephalitis and La Crosse viruses).

Our proposed scoring index utilises a framework proposed an European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) Technical Report (2014) which uses results from laboratory assessments of vector competence for mosquito-virus dyads, along with field observations of infected mosquitoes. For our pilot scoring index, results from 300 relevant articles from an ongoing scoping review on mosquito competence within the Canadian context are used. Risk scores are presented numerically for mosquito-virus dyads, ranging from between 0 (no vector competence) and 4 (highest vector competence), in accordance with our risk profile framework, with clearly defined risk scores and profiles within the Canadian context. The feasibility of utilising the ECDC framework for Canada is evaluated. Challenges with data availability, utility, and methodology for the scoring index within the Canadian context are assessed and identified.

This pilot study allows us to evaluate the creation of a risk index for MBD in Canada according to the ECDC framework. Since a suitable Canadian risk matrix for MBD is currently unavailable, our results are beneficial for future MBD management in Canada.