Market implications of changes in climate, land coverage and annual colony mortality for U.S. commercial beekeeping operations.

Climate change can affect honey bee (Apis mellifera) health by increasing habitat loss and reducing honey production. Moreover, climate change can have an impact on the forage flowering period, nectar provisioning rates and farm crop selection, all of which have indirect impact on bee health. Climate change also reduces the area of suitable habitat for bees and affects farm crop selection. Numerous studies have forecasted significant economic impacts resulting from pollinator population declines. Economic studies, which model beekeepers as profit-maximizing agents who adapt to changing conditions, have come to less dire predictions. Econometric analyses have also found that increased colony mortality affects pollination fees only slightly. To date, there have been no econometric studies of how the pollination and honey markets will respond to climate or land coverage changes, and there have been no economic analysis on the impacts of summer and winter colony mortality. In this study we are 1) developing an economic simulation model for the beekeeping industry in the U.S. that simulate the effects of changes in climate and both summer and winter mortality on U.S. pollination and honey markets, including pollination fees, honey prices and beekeepers’ income and profitability; 2) developing an econometric model to estimate impacts of climate change on land coverage, bee mortality and honey production rate, as well as the joint impact of climate change and land coverage on bees; and 3) investigating the joint effects of land use, pollination demand expansion and mortality rates on the commercial beekeeping industry.