OOS 23 - A comparative perspective on integrating ecological forecasting with decision-making

Organizer(s)

• KB

  Korryn Bodner

  MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael’s Hospital, Canada

Co-Organizer(s)

• CR

  Carina Rauen Firkowski

  McGill University & University of Toronto, Canada
• MF

  Marie-Josée Fortin

  University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Moderator(s)

• CR

  Carina Rauen Firkowski

  McGill University & University of Toronto, Canada

As the rate of human impact accelerates, “A Change Is Gonna Come” for social and ecological systems, requiring more rapid and science-based decision-making. Ecological forecasting — the process of predicting changes in ecological systems and their components with specified uncertainties — is useful to assist decision-makers in responding to environmental and societal concerns, even in uncertain conditions. Today, the recent availability of cyberinfrastructure, open-source data and novel techniques have increased opportunities to generate ecological forecasts. However, to design forecasts that are useful for decision-making, forecasts must not only be reliable but also must account for the interests and needs of decision-makers and those affected by the decision-making process. The challenge of accommodating those needs and interests is formidable as even when best practices for integrating forecasts into decision-making are known, mismatches can still occur between idealized practices and those adopted to build forecasting models. Both the development of strategies to tackle the divide between forecasting and decision-making and the challenges of their implementation need to be addressed across different sectors and levels of government.

In this session, we will begin by outlining some of the best practices for bridging the divide between ecological forecasting and decision-making. These proposed best practices were generated by academic, government and industry researchers who have experience building forecasts and/or working with decision-makers. The first talk outlining these practices will serve as a foundation for the session. Each following speaker will focus on a different case study where forecasts were either successfully or unsuccessfully adopted in a decision-making context, and discuss why this outcome occurred. Speakers will highlight practices they perceived to be most beneficial, from using more advanced techniques and quantifying uncertainties, to improving communication and involving decision-makers earlier in the forecasting process, and how successful they were at implementing these practices. As this topic spans across different fields, the speakers in this organized oral session will discuss creating forecasts to address a range of issues, from caribou conservation to pandemic planning. Overall, the session will highlight areas of forecasting where we have better succeeded as a scientific community and where we still must work to close the gap between the idealized version of ecological forecasting and the reality of forecasting for decision making.

Presentations:

• 8:00 AM – 8:15 AM EDT

  Guidelines for bridging the divide between ecological forecasts and decision-making
  

  Presenting Author: Korryn Bodner – MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, St. Michael’s Hospital

  Co-author: Carina Rauen Firkowski – McGill University & University of Toronto

  Co-author: Joseph R. Bennett, Bennett, PhD – Carleton University

  Co-author: Cole B. Brookson – University of Alberta

  Co-author: Michael C. Dietze – Boston University

  Co-author: Stephanie Green – University of Alberta

  Co-author: Josie Hughes – National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Jeremy T. Kerr – Department of Biology, University of Ottawa

  Co-author: Mélodie Kunegel-Lion – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Shawn J. Leroux – Memorial University of Newfoundland

  Co-author: Eliot McIntire – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Péter K. Molnár – University of Toronto

  Co-author: Craig Simpkins – University of Auckland; Wilfrid Laurier University

  Co-author: E. W. Tekwa – University of British Columbia

  Co-author: Alexander Watts – Esri Canada

  Co-author: Marie-Josée Fortin – University of Toronto
• 8:15 AM – 8:30 AM EDT

  Forecasting cumulative effects of anticipated resource development on wildlife and vegetation in the James Bay Lowlands of northern Ontario, Canada
  

  Presenting Author: Josie Hughes – National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Frances Stewart, PhD – Wilfrid Laurier University

  Co-author: Jennifer L. Baltzer, PhD – Wilfrid Laurier University

  Co-author: Lisa Venier, PhD – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Stephanie Avery-Gomm, PhD – Environment and Climate Change Canada, Science and Technology Branch

  Co-author: Raquel Alfaro-Sánchez, PhD – Wilfrid Laurier University

  Co-author: Alex M. Chubaty, PhD – FOR-CAST Research & Analytics

  Co-author: Steven G. Cumming – Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University

  Co-author: Sarah Endicott, MSc – Environment and Climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Leonardo Frid, MSc – Apex Resource Management Solutions

  Co-author: Cheryl A. Johnson, PhD – Environment and climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Samantha McFarlane, PhD – Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Eliot McIntire – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Philip A. Wiebe, MSc – Natural Resources Canada
• 8:30 AM – 8:45 AM EDT

  Forecasting Pacific salmon recruitment using empirical dynamic modeling
  

  Presenting Author: Luke Rogers – Fisheries and Oceans Canada

  Co-author: Luke Rogers – Fisheries and Oceans Canada

  Co-author: Andrew Edwards – Fisheries and Oceans Canada

  Co-author: Carrie Holt – Fisheries and Oceans Canada
• 8:45 AM – 9:00 AM EDT

  Tales from the trenches: Modelling and pandemic preparedness and response in Canada
  

  Presenting Author: Amy Greer – University of Guelph
• 9:00 AM – 9:15 AM EDT

  Trait‐based vulnerability reveals hotspots of potential impact for a global marine invader
  

  Presenting Author: Stephanie Green – University of Alberta

  Co-author: Cole B. Brookson – University of Alberta

  Co-author: Christi Linardich – International Union for Conservation of Nature Marine Biodiversity Unit, Old Dominion University
• 9:15 AM – 9:30 AM EDT

  Contributing to caribou land management plans in northern ecosystems while data, models, objectives and the ecosystems are in flux
  

  Presenting Author: Eliot McIntire – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Eliot McIntire – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Tati Micheletti – University of British Columbia

  Co-author: Ceres Barros – University of British Columbia

  Co-author: Frances Stewart, PhD – Wilfrid Laurier University

  Co-author: Ian Eddy – Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service

  Co-author: Celine Boisvenue – Natural Resources Canada

  Co-author: Junior A. Tremblay – Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Mathieu Leblond – Environment and Climate Change Canada

  Co-author: Alex M. Chubaty, PhD – FOR-CAST Research & Analytics

  Co-author: Steven G. Cumming – Department of Wood and Forest Sciences, Laval University

  Co-author: Alana R. Westwood – Dalhousie University

  Co-author: Trevor Teed – Dene Nation

  Co-author: James Hodson – Government of Northwest Territories

  Co-author: Samuel Hache – Canadian Wildlife Service