COS 112-3 - Horizon scanning for invasive species threats to Florida’s ecosystems, economy, and human health

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

4:00 PM – 4:15 PM EDT

Presenting Author(s)

DL

Deah Lieurance

Agronomy Department, University of Florida
Gainesville, Florida, United States

Coauthor(s)

SC

Susan Canavan

Department of Invasion Ecology, Institute of Botany Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Republic
DB

Donald C Behringer

School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences, University of Florida, United States
AK

Amy E. Kendig

Agronomy Department, University of Florida, United States
CM

Carey Minteer

Indian River Research and Education Center, University of Florida, United States
LR

Lindsey Reisinger

School of Forest, Fisheries, and Geomatics Sciences, University of Florida, United States
CR

Christina M Romagosa

Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, United States
SF

S Luke Flory

Agronomy Department, University of Florida, United States
JL

Julie L Lockwood

Ecology, Evolution and Natural Resources and Institute of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Rutgers University
New Brunswick, NJ, United States
WD

Wesley M Daniel

Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, United States
DG

Doria R Gordon

Environmental Defense Fund; Department of Biology, University of Florida, United States

Background/Question/Methods

Current invasive species prevention strategies primarily focus on recognized invaders post-introduction. Horizon scanning is a pro-active process for identifying and prioritizing potentially invasive taxa, that has not previously been implemented in the US. Because Florida’s geography, climate, diverse ecosystems, and extensive trade and tourism network make it especially vulnerable to biological invasions, we conducted an all-taxa horizon scan (excluding microorganisms) for the state. We assembled experts from academic, governmental, and non-profit organizations to assess and rank 459 taxa that are invasive or naturalized elsewhere with similar climates, but not yet introduced to Florida. First, species were screened with a rapid risk assessment tool comprised of three scoring elements: likelihood of arrival (A), establishment (E), and negative impacts (I). Each category was scored on a scale of 1 (unlikely to occur) to 5 (very likely to occur). Then, the final score was calculated by multiplying likelihood categories (A*E*I=SCORE), making 125 the highest possible score. Experts also estimated certainty for their scores (high, medium, low, very low) and identified pathways of arrival (e.g., release in nature, transport stowaway). Finally, experts met to review assessments and rank species.

Results/Conclusions

Forty-two taxa were identified as threats based on likelihood of arrival, establishment, and impacts. Four taxa received the maximum score: Alosa pseudoharengus (alewife), Dreissena polymorpha (zebra mussel), Macaca fascicularis (crab-eating macaque), and Procambarus clarkii (red swamp crayfish). Vertebrates and aquatic invertebrates posed the highest risk among the taxonomic groups. Omnivores were a greater risk than other functional groups. The most common pathways for arrival were associated with trade or escape from captivity: the majority of high-risk species were associated with escape from the pet/aquarium trade, stowaways in ballast water or biofouling ships, and movement through secondary pathways (interconnected waterways and natural dispersal after introduction). The majority of ranked species are currently established elsewhere in the US, suggesting biosecurity measures should include surveillance and interception at both international and state borders. Additionally, increased monitoring of high-risk pathways could intercept many future threats. This framework can serve as a model for horizon scans for other regions of the US, especially border states with international ports of entry.