OOS 7 - Ecological Forecasting: Applications, Discoveries, and Opportunities

Organizer(s)

• MD

  Michael Dietze

  Department of Earth and Environment
  Boston University
  Boston, Massachusetts, United States

Moderator(s)

• MD

  Michael Dietze

  Department of Earth and Environment
  Boston University
  Boston, Massachusetts, United States

Ecological forecasting epitomizes this year’s theme of “A Change is Gonna Come”. Ecological forecasting supports new 21st century approaches to research, conservation, and management that are critical at a time of increasing variability and high uncertainty in many ecosystems. We live in a time dominated by transient dynamics and forecasts play an increasingly important role in anticipating change. Putting forecasts into practice, which involves both changes in approach and mindset, is a critical part of facing the “disciplinary reckoning” that requires ecology to become a more predictive science. Thankfully, because of recent advances in data availability, models, statistics, and policy, the time is ripe for rapid progress. Advances in sensor technologies, computational capacities, and statistical/data science techniques, when combined with reduced data latency, are making near real-time ecology a reality. Consequently, the practice of ecological forecasting, i.e., the process of predicting the future states of ecological systems and ecological services with fully specified uncertainties, is an area of high interest and rapid growth in ecology that was barely possible a generation ago.



This session brings together ecologists from a diversity of study systems to highlight cutting-edge examples of near-term ecological forecasting that span ecosystem boundaries, time scales, and basic/applied applications. With the rapid growth of forecasting comes a need to share information about new approaches for model-data assimilation, quantification and analysis of uncertainties, best practices, and more. This session highlights a diverse set of speakers from across a range of career stages, races, nationalities, and institutions tackling ecological forecasting problems that directly provide data and models to inform environmental decision-makers.



This session is organized by the Ecological Forecasting Initiative (EFI), an interdisciplinary, grassroots consortium that brings together scientists, managers, and policymakers developing near-term (daily to decadal) ecological forecasts. EFI’s overarching goal - to advance ecological forecasting within the ecology research community - is motivated by the goal to improve our ability to respond to complex environmental challenges by providing environmental decision-makers with the best available science in hand.

Presentations:

• 8:00 AM – 8:15 AM EDT

  Estimating Uncertainty for Time Series Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks
  

  Presenting Author: Marcus Lapeyrolerie – University of California, Berkeley
• 8:15 AM – 8:30 AM EDT

  Estimating and projecting interrelated impacts of climate and land-use change on a widespread waterbird
  

  Presenting Author: Sarah Saunders – National Audubon Society

  Co-author: Sarah Saunders – National Audubon Society

  Co-author: Walter Piper – Chapman University

  Co-author: Matthew Farr – Michigan State University

  Co-author: Brooke Bateman – National Audubon Society

  Co-author: Nicole L. Michel – National Audubon Society, New York City, NY, USA

  Co-author: Henrik Westerkam – National Audubon Society

  Co-author: Chad Wilsey – National Audubon Society
• 8:30 AM – 8:45 AM EDT

  Incorporating evolutionary potential into zoonotic disease forecasts
  

  Presenting Author: Anna Sjodin – University of Idaho

  Co-author: Nathan C. Layman – EcoHealth Alliance

  Co-author: Andrew Basinski – university of idaho

  Co-author: Scott Nuismer – University of idaho
• 8:45 AM – 9:00 AM EDT

  Predicting soil microbiome structure and function using genome-scale metabolic modeling
  

  Presenting Author: Zoey R. Werbin – Boston University

  Co-Author: Michael C. Dietze – Boston University

  Co-Author: Jennifer M. Bhatnagar – Boston University
• 9:00 AM – 9:15 AM EDT

  Ecological-Fishery Forecasting of short-lived species under climate variability and change
  

  Presenting Author: Hassan Moustahfid, Dr. – NOAA

  Co-author: Hassan Moustahfid, Dr. – NOAA

  Co-author: Lisa Hendrickson, Dr. – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Co-author: Alexander Arkhipkin, Dr. – Falklands Islands Directorate of Natural Resources, UK

  Co-author: Graham J. Pierce, Dr. – Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Vigo, Spain

  Co-author: Avijit Gangopadhyay, Dr. – University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA

  Co-author: Hideaki Kidokoro, Dr. – Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Japan

  Co-author: Unai Markaida, Dr. – El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Mexico

  Co-author: Chingiz Nigmatullin, Dr. – Atlantic Branch of VNIRO (AtlantNIRO), RU

  Co-author: Warwick H. Sauer, Dr. – Rhodes University, South Africa

  Co-author: Patrizia Jereb, Dr. – talian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Italy

  Co-author: Gretta Pecl, Dr. – University of Tasmania, Australia;

  Co-author: Thibaut De La Chesnais – University of Tasmania, Australia

  Co-author: Luca Ceriola, Dr. – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy

  Co-author: Najih Lazar – University of Rhode Island, USA

  Co-author: Christopher J. Firmin, Dr. – Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), UK

  Co-author: Vladimir Laptikhovsky, Dr. – Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), UK
• 9:15 AM – 9:30 AM EDT

  CANCELLED - Near-term agricultural forecasts of carbon dynamics to improve carbon sequestration and decision support at Field Observatory Network (FiON) sites
  

  Presenting Author: Istem Fer – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Olli Nevalainen – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Henri Kajasilta – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Laura Heimsch – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Henriikka Vekuri – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Åsa Stam – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Stephanie Gerin – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Toni Viskari – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Julius Vira – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Juha-Pekka Tuovinen – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Tuomas Laurila – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Annalea Lohila – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Liisa Kulmala – Finnish Meteorological Institute

  Co-author: Jari Liski – Finnish Meteorological Institute