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Organized Oral Session

Session: Ecological Forecasting: Applications, Discoveries, and Opportunities

OOS 7-5 - Ecological-Fishery Forecasting of short-lived species under climate variability and change

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

9:00 AM – 9:15 AM EDT

Location: 520C

Presenting Author(s)

HM

Hassan Moustahfid, Dr.

NOAA, United States

Co-author(s)

HM

Hassan Moustahfid, Dr.

NOAA, United States
LH

Lisa Hendrickson, Dr.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
AA

Alexander Arkhipkin, Dr.

Falklands Islands Directorate of Natural Resources, UK
GP

Graham J. Pierce, Dr.

Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, Vigo, Spain
AG

Avijit Gangopadhyay, Dr.

University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA
HK

Hideaki Kidokoro, Dr.

Fisheries Resources Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, Japan
UM

Unai Markaida, Dr.

El Colegio de la Frontera Sur. Mexico
CN

Chingiz Nigmatullin, Dr.

Atlantic Branch of VNIRO (AtlantNIRO), RU
WS

Warwick H. Sauer, Dr.

Rhodes University, South Africa
PJ

Patrizia Jereb, Dr.

talian National Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), Italy
GP

Gretta Pecl, Dr.

University of Tasmania, Australia;
TD

Thibaut De La Chesnais

University of Tasmania, Australia
LC

Luca Ceriola, Dr.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Italy
NL

Najih Lazar

University of Rhode Island, USA
CF

Christopher J. Firmin, Dr.

Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), UK
VL

Vladimir Laptikhovsky, Dr.

Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), UK

Background/Question/Methods
All projections indicate that climate change will affect marine living resources around the globe as well as broader components of marine ecosystems. Warming waters and changing productivity are affecting the distribution and abundance of living marine resources, and the frequency and magnitude of impacts are expected to increase. Although the impacts of climate change will overwhelmingly be negative, there will in fact be 'winners' and 'losers' among different marine species. One group of species that seems flourishing and winning the adaptation race are cephalopods as shown by their rapid rise in their global landings. However, cephalopod populations are sensitive to environmental variability, in that many species show wide fluctuations in abundance, and that this is most evident for the commercial and abundant squid. A key barrier to rational management of squid fisheries is the low level of development of fishing forecasting. It is complicated by the high dynamic year-to-year fluctuation in the abundance of stocks. These species mainly have a short 1-2-year life cycle, with planktonic paralarvae and juvenile stages that inhabit epi-pelagic water layers for about 2-2.5 months and have a high mortality rate. These key factors help define the problems and specifics of squid fishery forecasting.

Results/Conclusions
In this presentation, we first provide our current knowledge of the effects of climate change on squid species and sheds light on the urgent need for further research and development of tools to support squid fisheries management. Ecological fishery forecasting of squid distribution and abundance has emerged as a potential tool that could help decision-makers and managers and stakeholders plan for the future and make informed decisions regarding alternative management choices. Despite substantial progress made in developing fishery forecasting capabilities, several challenges remain to developing forecast products. Herein, we propose a roadmap to help guide the future development of squid forecasting to achieve sustainable squid fisheries management.