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Organized Oral Session

Session: Understanding drivers of grassland phenology under a changing climate

OOS 18-6 - Phenological convergence over space and time: Shifts in tundra phenology with long-term and experimental warming

Tuesday, August 16, 2022

2:45 PM – 3:00 PM EDT

Location: 520D

Presenting Author(s)

JP

Janet Prevey

Research Ecologist
USGS
Fort Collins, Colorado, United States

Slides (PDF)

Co-author(s)

SE

Sarah C. Elmendorf

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
AB

Anne Bjorkman

Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden, Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
JA

Juha M. Alatalo

Environmental Science Center, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar
iA

isabel Ashton

National Park Service, 820 Columbus Street, Rapid City, SD 57701, USA.
JA

Jakob J. Assmann

Department of Biology, Aarhus University, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
RB

Robert G. Björk

Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, PO Box 460, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
MB

Mats P. Björkman

Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, PO Box 460, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
NC

Nicoletta Cannone

Department of Science and High Technology, Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, 2210 Como, Italy
MC

Michele Carbognani

Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 11/A, I-43124 Parma, Italy
CC

Chelsea Chisholm

Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich 8092, Switzerland
KC

Karin Clark

PO Box 1320, Yellowknife, NT X1A 2L9, Canada
CC

Courtney G. Collins

University of British Columbia, Canada
EC

Elisabeth J. Cooper

Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway
BE

Bo Elberling

Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark
EF

Esther R. Frei

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Fluelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
GH

Greg R.H. Henry

University of British Columbia, Canada
RH

Robert D. Hollister

Biology Department, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI 49401-9403, USA
TH

Toke T. Høye

Department of Bioscience and Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Grenåvej 14, 8410 Rønde, Denmark
IJ

Ingibjörg Svala Jónsdóttir

Life- and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, Sturlugata 7, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland
JK

Jeffrey T. Kerby

Aarhus Institute of Advanced Studies, Aarhus University, Høegh-Guldbergs Gade 6B, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark
KK

Kari Klanderud

Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Aas, Norway
CK

Christopher Kopp

University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
EL

Esther Levesque

Département des Sciences de l’environnement et Centre d’études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, QC G8Z 4M3, Canada
MM

Marguerite Mauritz

Biological Sciences, University of Texas at El Paso, 500 West University, El Paso, TX 79902, USA
UM

Ulf Molau

Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden
IM

Isla H. Myers-Smith

University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Scotland
SN

Susan M. Natali

Woodwell Climate Research Center, United States
SO

Steven F. Oberbauer

Florida International University, United States
ZP

Zoe Panchen

Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
AP

Alessandro Petraglia

Department of Chemistry, Life Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, University of Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 11/A, I-43124 Parma, Italy
EP

Eric Post

Department of Wildlife, Fish, & Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
CR

Christian Rixen

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Fluelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland
HR

Heidi Rodenhizer

Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
SR

Sabine B. Rumpf

Department of Environmental Sciences, University of basel, Basel, Switzerland
NS

Niels Martin Schmidt

Aarhus University, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark
TS

Ted Schuur

Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
PS

Philipp Semenchuk

Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT-The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø, Norway; Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria
JS

Jane G. Smith

Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
KS

Katharine Suding

Professor
University of Colorado
�T

Ørjan Totland

Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, P.O. Box 5003, NO-1432 Aas, Norway
TT

Tiffany Troxler

Florida International University, United States
HW

Henrik Wahren

Research Centre for Applied Alpine Ecology, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria 3086, Australia
JW

Jeffrey M. Welker

University of Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA; UArctic and University of Oulu, 90014 Oulu, Finland
SW

Sonja Wipf

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Fluelastrasse 11, 7260 Davos Dorf, Switzerland; Swiss National Park, Chasté Planta-Wildenberg, 7530 Zernez, Switzerland
YY

Yue Yang

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland; Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education, School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China

Background/Question/Methods
Global climate change has significantly altered the phenology of organisms around the world, however, the magnitude of phenological responses can differ greatly between sites and species. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collection of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants in cold grassland steppe and tundra to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150,434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods up to 26 years.

Results/Conclusions
Observations from this dataset revealed that green-up and flowering of plants at colder tundra sites is more sensitive to changes in temperature than phenology of plants from warmer tundra sites, and that late-flowering tundra species flower earlier with warmer temperatures than early-flowering species – potentially leading to shorter flowering seasons with predicted warmer summers in the future. Together, these results indicate that temporal overlap in flowering between and within tundra plant populations may increase as the climate warms, possibly altering the potential for pollen transfer and therefore gene flow. This work, and future syntheses involving the tundra phenology database, can be used to inform and refine climate-vegetation models, and predict regions where phenological mismatch between vegetation and pollinators or herbivores will be likely as the climate changes.