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Symposium

Session: Zoonoses and the Agricultural Matrix: Integration and Synthesis for Landscape Immunity

SYMP 20-3 - Exploring future food systems in the context of emerging zoonotic diseases using scenario exploration

Thursday, August 18, 2022

2:10 PM – 2:30 PM EDT

Location: 524A

Presenting Author(s)

AS

Alon Shepon

Porter School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Co-author(s)

TW

Tong Wu

Stanford University
CK

Claire Kremen

University of British Columbia, British Columbia, Canada
TD

Tamar Dayan

The Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel
IP

Ivette Perfecto

University of Michigan, School for Environment and Sustainability
Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States
JF

Jessica Fanzo

School of Advanced International Studies, Berman Institute of Bioethics and Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
GE

Gidon Eshel

Department of Environmental Science, Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York, United States of America
Cg

Christopher golden

Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Background/Question/Methods
The unprecedented economic and health impacts of COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic outbreaks, which occur at the human-wildlife/domesticated animal interface in spillover events. Spillover events are associated with higher habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, increased agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting and farming - all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in food systems discourse in order to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of zoonotic outbreaks. Here, we adopt a risk analysis and qualitative scenario framework to highlight the myriad connections between food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions - the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed - that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability.

Results/Conclusions
Our analysis sheds light on a hitherto but increasingly important dimension of food system transformation, calls for which increasingly abound. We detail the implications of our findings for advancing sustainable development while reducing zoonotic spillovers, highlighting future research directions.