OOS 30-3 - Predicting bryophytes response to climate change: ecological niche models and spore dispersal simulations

Background/Question/Methods
Dispersal is a key evolutionary force that determines the survival, growth and reproduction of organisms, cycles of colonization and extinction of populations and globally drives species dynamic responses to their environment. In the context of ongoing climate changes, these dynamics take on even greater importance as the survivability of species depends on their ability to shift their ranges, find refugia or adapt to changes in local climatic conditions. We focus on bryophytes, whose documented long distance spores dispersal capacity, together with their lack of vascular system and high sensitivity to changes in humidity and temperature, position them as likely indicator species to monitor the effects of climate changes.

Results/Conclusions
In a recent paper we tackle the challenging task of simulating wind dispersal across a variable landscape (the whole European continent) in order to assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulated future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species. The results highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.