PS 2-25 - Analyzing the variability in Lyme disease risk maps: A humanistic approach

Background/Question/Methods

Used as a communicative tool for risk management by public health managers, risk maps provide a service to the public. They convey information that can raise risk awareness and encourage mitigation strategies. One such use for risk maps is to demonstrate and predict the geographic distribution of Lyme disease (LD). LD can lead to severe conditions and is the most common vector-borne disease across North America. Several studies have utilized predictive maps to determine risks associated with the geographical range and distribution of LD while others have relied on surveillance maps. For risk maps to be effective, a thorough understanding of which variables should be included in the assessment. To better understand which variables are common in risk maps – and which ones are lacking – it is necessary to examine past literature. A review of the literature from 2003 to the present was performed to identify the variables past research has considered influential to the distribution of LD. This review consisted of studies in North America that utilized Lyme disease risk maps in which the variables used to create these maps were compared.

Results/Conclusions

It was found that the majority of risk maps were created using ecological variables, particularly the density of the disease vector, blacklegged ticks (Ixodes scapularis). Anthropogenic variables, however, were often overlooked. Risk map studies that are relevant to public health should include variables associated with humans (i.e., social, economic) as these variables directly affect the risks posed to the public. By calling attention to the lack of human variables found in previous risk maps, future researchers may be persuaded to enhance their own models by including anthropogenic factors in them.