Poster Session C - Monday Afternoon
Category: Esophagus
Cary C. Cotton, MD, MPH
University of North Carolina
Chapel Hill, NC
Model variable | Base case value | Reference/details |
Structural model assumptions | ||
Model cycle length | 3 months |
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Model time horizon | 10 years |
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Model starting year | 2017 | For other-cause mortality and inflation adjustment |
Other cause mortality | Population | 2020 Social Security actuarial cohort life tables |
Time for resection | 1 cycle | Resection for all recurrent HGD or IMC |
Resection success rate | 100% | Simplifying assumption |
Time for ablation | 1 cycle | Repeated until successful |
Discounting of costs/utilities | 3% | Per year |
Probabilities per cycle from the literature | ||
Death from invasive adenocarcinoma | 7.63% | SEER 5-Year Relative Survival Rates 2012-2018* |
Complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia after recurrence | 57.7% | Guthikonda et al., The American Journal of Gastroenterology, 2017 |
Cancer progression from recurrence | 0.1625% | Guthikonda et al., The American Journal of Gastroenterology, 2017 |
Utilities per cycle from the literature | ||
Surveillance after CEIM | 97% | Boger et al., Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics, 2010 |
Retreatment endoscopy | 94% | Boger et al., Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics, 2010 |
Esophageal adenocarcinoma | 96% | Boger et al., Alimentary Pharmacology and Therapeutics, 2010 |
Costs per cycle from the literature | ||
Surveillance endoscopy | $1,019 | Inadomi et al., Gastroenterology, 2009† |
Cost of cancer care | $13,532 | Inadomi et al., Gastroenterology, 2009† |
Cost of ablation re-treatment | $4,317 | Inadomi et al., Gastroenterology, 2009† Assumed half cost of initial treatment |
Cost of resection re-treatment | $934 | Filby et al., Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research, 2017** |
*Assumes cumulative incidence = 1 – e^(-incidence x time), †Assuming 17.7% inflation, **Assumes 133% exchange rate with the British Pound. |