(PS6-C62) Differences in Alcohol Expectancy Organization and Activation Patterns in 5th Grade Precede Onset of Alcohol Use in Children

Alcohol expectancies are acquired in children before alcohol use, predict future drinking, co-vary with alcohol use, and are changeable with predictable changes in subsequent drinking. Children and adults who consume alcohol are more likely to activate positive and arousing expectancies in memory, and this is more pronounced among those who drink more than peers. The developmental trajectory of expectancy activation patterns in relation to drinking has been demonstrated in children beginning in 3^rd grade, but these findings were based on cross-sectional data and the temporal order of changes in activation patterns and onset of alcohol use could not be established. To address this issue, we applied memory modeling analyses to data collected from children over the course of five years. Participants (n=1900) completed a memory model-based expectancy questionnaire and an alcohol use measure each year from 5^th to 10^th grade. Children who reported alcohol use prior to 5^th grade were excluded from analyses (n=32). Remaining participants reported no previous alcohol use (n=1868) and were grouped based on drinking during 10^th grade. The “abstainers” group (n=1195) reported no alcohol consumption through 10^th grade, and “initiators” (n=673) reported initiating alcohol use between 5^th and 10^th grade. Expectancies assessed during 5^th, 6^th, 7^th, 8^th, 9^th, and 10^th grade were mapped into memory network format using Individual Differences Scaling (INDSCAL). As in previous studies, a two-dimensional solution was optimal (R2 = .94, stress = .138) and dimensions represented positive-negative effects and arousal-sedation effects. Abstainers predominantly focused on the positive-negative dimension regardless of year in school, primarily activating negative expectancies. Dimension weights for children who initiated alcohol consumption between 5^th and 10^th grades progressively increased on the arousal-sedation dimension in relation to year in school, and there was evidence of a greater likelihood of activating prosocial and arousal expectancies. In a second analysis, the drinking initiation group was further divided into those who reported drinking once a month or less in 10^th grade and those who drank more than once a month. The same pattern of results was found. Compared to abstainers and those who drank once a month or less, children who drank more than once a month were more likely to activate positive and arousing expectancies. These findings indicate organization and activation of expectancies changes before onset of alcohol use, and these changes are more pronounced in children who will drink more in later childhood. Patterns of expectancy activation in memory have been proposed as a mechanism by which expectancies influence alcohol use. Expectancy challenge methods focused on changing these activation patterns have been successful as prevention and intervention programs when implemented with high school students, high-risk college students, and students in their first semester of college. Our results underscore the importance of implementing expectancy-based programs as early as elementary school, and repeating delivery of expectancy challenge content throughout childhood would maximize potential benefits.