(PS1-B29) Examining Psychosocial and Environmental Risk Factors as Predictors of Hurricane Evacuation Decision-making

   Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of hurricanes (Emanuel, 2008) and evacuation remains a primary strategy to reduce hurricane-related mortality (Huang et al., 2016). Understanding the psychosocial and environmental risk factors that influence evacuation decision-making can increase evacuation policy effectiveness. Previous literature shows that living in a hurricane risk area, mobile home residence, predicted storm strength, and previously experiencing a hurricane increase the likelihood that an individual will  decide to evacuate (Huang et al., 2016). This study extends this literature by examining how hurricane experiences and environmental risk influence self-reported anticipatory likelihood of future hurricane evacuation. Participants (N=815) were Florida residents aged 18–79 years (M = 35.59, SD = 12.48) who completed an online survey approximately 4-8 months after Hurricane Irma, a category 4 hurricane, made landfall in Florida. Participants reported their experiences during Irma (i.e., whether they evacuated, how much they worried about property damage, and whether their home had flooded) and provided responses regarding anticipated behaviors (i.e., the likelihood they would evacuate) for future hurricanes. Participants’ home address was used to determine FEMA flood risk zones. Participants were categorized as living in a  “high” flood risk zone if their address was located in either a FEMA special flood hazard area or moderate flood hazard area, and in a “low” flood risk zone if their address was located outside of these areas. Multiple linear regression examined whether subjective hurricane concerns (i.e. previous flood experience, worries about property damage) predicted anticipatory likelihood of evacuation over objective flood risk and common controls (i.e., age, gender, SES, dependent children in home, mobile home residency, past evacuation). All predictors were entered simultaneously. Participants who previously experienced flooding (β= 0.43 [0.36, 0.50], p< .001; rsp2= 0.13) and had higher worries about property damage (β= 0.237 [0.17, 0.30], p< .001; rsp2= 0.05) were more likely to evacuate in the future. Living in a high flood risk zone did not predict the likelihood of future evacuation. Results suggest the importance of emphasizing experiential and psychological factors over objective flood risk when discussing evacuation decision-making.