Disadvantaged communities, such as those with large sensitive populations, including minorities, low-income populations, and seniors, have often historically borne a disproportionate share of the pollution burden. Particularly in urban areas, this is related to land use and development patterns that place sensitive populations near roadway and other emission sources. In 2021, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) prepared San Diego Forward: The Regional Plan to update previous regional plans and strategies. The associated environmental impact report (EIR) analyzes environmental impacts of the proposed Plan, mitigation measures, and alternatives that could inform decisions made by the public and stakeholders. Beyond the EIR the SANDAG Board of Directors’ Resolution 2021-17 requested a standalone evaluation of health impacts resulting from implementing the Regional Plan. ICF developed and executed a comprehensive health impact analysis (HIA) that considered regional emissions and the changes driven by the Plan to predict the changes in ambient PM2.5 concentrations and the resulting changes in health outcomes that may be expected across the County. Our chained analysis utilized traffic modeling, emissions modeling for mobile and other regional sources, CALPUFF modeling for primary and secondary PM2.5 pollution, BenMAP modeling of health impacts of pollution, demographic analyses, and geospatial analyses. We modeled impacts at Census Block Group (CBG) scale across the western portion of the County, capturing 98% of the population for existing conditions (2016) and future conditions under the Plan (2050). We considered adverse health outcomes including premature mortality, asthma, chronic lung disease, acute bronchitis, upper and lower respiratory symptoms, and lost workdays. Changes in adverse health outcomes resulting from the combined changes in air pollution and demographic changes such as growth and aging of the population were evaluated between the two years to assess the health impacts of the Plan among disadvantaged communities and the County as a whole. Our analysis found that under the Plan regionwide, the population would experience an average of 30 fewer premature deaths per 100,000 persons and, on average, reduced cases of hospital admissions for asthma and chronic lung disease, ER visits for asthma, exacerbated asthma, minor restricted activity days, acute bronchitis, upper and lower respiratory symptoms, and lost workdays related to air quality changes. Disadvantaged communities generally show greater benefits. There, air quality changes under the Plan would result in 48 fewer premature deaths per 100,000 persons on average. Even with improving air quality, some health outcomes, such as non-fatal heart attacks, are worse in 2050 than 2016. This is related to the aging of the population.
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