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Alison C. Ketz, Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Daniel P. Walsh, National Wildlife Health Center, U.S. Geological Survey and Daniel J. Storm, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources
Presenting Author(s)
Alison C. Ketz
Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA
Background/Question/Methods Host susceptibility to infectious pathogens and infection risk can vary by demographics, through time, and across geographic space. Heterogeneities affect epizootic dynamics and can be characterized by an underlying dynamic process that gives rise to patterns of infections in hosts. We examined a large suite of force-of-infection models to explore hypotheses related to chronic wasting disease (CWD) dynamics. We use cross-sectional surveillance data obtained from 18 years of hunter harvest surveillance in Wisconsin and estimated the influence of sex, space, age, time, as well as their interactions, on the CWD force-of-infection in the region. Results/Conclusions We showed strong associations of infection rates with age, sex, location, and time. The functional form of the force-of-infection of our top model supports exponential growth of CWD over time, with clear spatial structure. Our models demonstrate how a CWD epizootic can change over a protracted time scale; with implications for disease ecology, geographic spread, and disease mitigation.
