Background/Question/Methods Teak (Tectona grandis L. f.) is an indigenous deciduous species in India that ecologically and commercially has importance. It is distributed and grown as plantations in most parts of India; however, growing demand in changing climatic conditions is crucial for its sustainable management. Planted teak (approx. 4.35 to 6.89 m ha) spread worldwide, 83% occurring in Asia, 8% in Africa, and 4% in the tropical Americas. India has 6.3 to 8.9 m ha natural and 1.5 to 2.5 m ha planted teak and is the second-most planted species. Global climate change impacts on teak distribution, growth, and net primary productivity (NPP) are crucial for better adaptation to climate change mitigation approaches. Therefore, this study aims to incorporate species distribution modelling and process-based modelling with Global circulation model (GCMs) CCSM4 climate data for future scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used Maxent modelling for teak distribution and process-based model 3-PGmix (Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth) for growth and net primary productivity (NPP) projections under changing climatic scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) up to the year 2100 using 1981-2010 climatic data as a baseline. 3-PGmix was parameterized with a set of parameters values obtained from literature, fitted to observed data, and some used as a default values. Results/Conclusions No previous study had integrate 3-PGmix and species distribution modelling for teak. Previous studies revealed that an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration would positively impact the NPP of vegetation, including teak species. Our initial modelled estimations also evident that a rise in CO2 would strongly impact increased teak productivity. NPP under RCP8.5 will be higher than RCP4.5; thus, there would be more carbon stock and sequestration in teak plantations in future climatic conditions. However, there would be uncertainty in teak distribution. Previous studies noticed that teak distribution would be concentrated due to changes in local climatic conditions. Therefore, this study sets important findings on the importance of the 3-PGmix model integrated with species distribution modelling with remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) for assessing climate change impacts on teak productivity and distribution under climate change. Our estimates from this study would improve ecological research of forest management in changing climate. However, such research could be improved using data from multiple ensemble higher-resolution GCMs, spatial simulation and model validation using extensive ground truth.
