In 2021 SilviaTerra launched NCAPX, an ecosystem services market that engages the 200+ million acres of forest owned by small landowners across the United States. Underlying NCAPX is Basemap, a forest inventory layer based on thousands of ground measurements, remote sensing layers, and other data. Basemap’s component models are also explicitly encoded with domain knowledge on the structure and distribution of the forests of the United States. This talk will discuss the development of Basemap, focusing on how a synthesis of data and expert knowledge is critical to estimating carbon and other attributes with sufficient certainty to power a multi-stakeholder market. Results/Conclusions In 2019, we piloted NCAPX among 22 participating landowners in central Pennsylvania. The program was successful, resulting in 302,000 metric tons of carbon sequestered over baseline scenarios. However, the pilot also highlighted limitations to earlier versions of Basemap, which were heavily focused on elucidating ecological processes with naïve models and massive pools of data. The introduction of structured, hierarchical models has resulted in a 15-30% improvement in accuracy and precision for a range of forest attributes, when evaluating Basemap against independent test datasets. These improvements have helped to make roll out of NCAPX across the continental United States possible in 2021. Additionally, they provide a framework for expanding the market to include additional ecosystem services such as biodiversity and habitat for vulnerable species. Beyond 2021, Basemap will continue to develop and improve thanks to additional data and expertise provided by NCAPX stakeholders, ranging from small landowners to forest management and policy experts. This real world to model feedback demonstrates the potential of ecological forecasting to support global efforts to mitigate carbon emissions while supporting forest conservation, stewardship, and rural development.
