Tick population challenge

John R. Foster, Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, Matthew E. Bitters, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, Melissa Y. Chen, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, Leah R. Johnson, Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, Shannon L. LaDeau, Cary Insitute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, Catherine Lippi, University of Florida, Brett Melbourne, Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, Wynne Moss, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO and Sadie J. Ryan, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida

The inaugural year of the Ecological Forecasting Initiative’s tick population challenge has participants forecasting weekly abundance of Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum nymphs, vectors of multiple tick-borne diseases across the United States. The challenge focuses on the 2019 field season, with forecasts produced at 22 field plots across seven NEON sites along the eastern seaboard. Challenge teams explore different model structures to examine how specific weather and habitat attributes drive tick population growth at local and regional scales. We further investigate limits of predictability for two of North America’s most important tick-borne disease vectors.