Matrix population models: Past, present and future

Christie Le Coeur and Yngvild Vindenes, Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway, Hal Caswell, Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Background/Question/Methods
Matrix Population Models (MPMs) represent an important class of structured population models that have been widely used in many areas of ecology, evolution and conservation biology. A MPM is a discrete-time demographic model, where individuals are divided into distinct classes, based on their age, size, habitat or life-history stage. This model contains a complete description of (st)age-specific survival, fertility and transition rates, summarized in a projection matrix. We use this matrix to describe and project population dynamics over time and estimate key demographic parameters, such as the long-term population growth rate and generation time.
Results/Conclusions
In this talk, we provide an historical overview of this demographic tool and introduce its basic structure. We review its main applications in the field of ecology, evolutionary biology, conservation biology and management, with a particular emphasis on climate change research. Recent model development and the most important challenges faced by demographers when using this type of model are also discussed. Using numerous examples, we illustrate how MPMs are a powerful tool to investigate the underlying demographic mechanisms that shape ecological and evolutionary processes, and to address key management and conservation questions.