O0810 Oct.3: 3:25pm - Risk Factors for Failure Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in a Pediatric Population: A Novel Prediction Algorithm

Background: Pediatric anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is becoming increasingly common, however, there is limited literature on the risk factors for failure in this demographic. In the present study we sought to: 1. To determine the rate of pediatric ACL reconstruction (ACLR) failure requiring revision surgery in a nationally representative sample. 2. To determine the associated patient/injury-specific risk factors for ACLR failure. 3. To examine the differences in the rate and risks of failure between pediatric and adult patients.

Methods: Patient records were drawn from Humana individual health plans and Medicare medical records using the PearlDiver patient record database. Private plans in the database were queried for 5 years between 2011-2016, capturing ~25 million records. Adult and pediatric patients who underwent primary ACLR and subsequent reoperation for either ACL revision surgery or a revision meniscal procedure were identified. Multivariate regression was used to determine the significant risk factors for ACL revision and overall reoperation rates in pediatric and adult patients. A risk algorithm was developed to predict the risk of ACL revision following pediatric ACL reconstruction using a multivariable logistic regression model.

Results: ACL reconstruction was performed in 2037 pediatric and 6080 adult patients. Pediatric patients were significantly more likely to require ACL revision within one year (OR=1.97, 95%CI 1.57-2.45, p<0.0001) and five years (OR=3.22, 95%CI 2.77-3.72, p<0.0001) following their index ACLR compared to adults. Survivorship of the index ACL procedure was significantly decreased in pediatric patients (log-rank test p<0.0001) (Figure 1). The median time to revision was 386 days for pediatric patients and 240.5 days for adult patients. Pediatric patients were also at higher risk of sustaining a contralateral ACL tear compared to adults (5.9% vs. 1.4%, respectively, p<0.0001). Meniscus injury was a risk factor for overall re-operation (OR=2.18, 95%CI 1.67-2.89 p<0.0001) as well as ACL revision (OR=2.28, 95%CI=1.66-3.21, p<0.0001) in the pediatric cohort. This increased risk was sustained despite the type of meniscal tear intervention, with patients undergoing concurrent meniscal repair (OR=1.84, 95%CI 1.43-2.38, p<0.0001) or meniscectomy (OR=2.20, 95%CI 1.72-2.82, p<0.0001) having a higher likelihood of requiring a revision ACLR. Concomitant MCL injury but not LCL injury was a risk factor for ACL revision in this cohort (OR=1.70, 95%CI 1.31-2.19, p<0.0001). Male sex and (OR=0.78, 95%CI 0.63-0.96, p=0.0204) and being >14 years old (OR=0.62, 95%CI 0.45-0.86, p=0.0035) was associated with a decreased risk of overall reoperation. The risk algorithm demonstrated the highest probability for ACLR failure in females, less than 15 years of age, with concomitant meniscus and MCL injury, demonstrating a 36% risk of failure (Table 1).

Conclusion: Compared to adults, pediatric patients have an increased likelihood of ACL revision surgery, contralateral ACL tears, and meniscal reoperation within 5 years of an index ACLR.